Since February 24, 2022, the whole world has been watching the open confrontation going on between Russia and Ukraine. Or, rather, between Russia and NATO. After all, Kyiv has repeatedly admitted that it would not have survived without Western assistance, and, therefore, is asking for further assistance. Buoyed by its ability to recapture several districts of the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainian leadership kept convincing its Western partners that victory was already close at hand. It looked like there were reasons to think that the Russian army was not capable of resisting the well-trained and equipped Ukrainian adversary. The Western media even reported about an internal conflict within the Russian Defense Ministry and disagreements between the Russian General Staff on the one hand, and private military companies and volunteer units on the other.
For some time, Kyiv managed to maintain its fighting mood and announced more ambitious plans, for example, to reach Crimea by September. However, the much touted summer counteroffensive has not yet been implemented. Why so? The Western media talked a lot about arms and other military gear that NATO countries were supplying to the Ukrainian army, about the training of new Ukrainian at European bases, and the delivery of modern missile systems to Kyiv. The new supplies were meant to equip 17 Ukrainian brigades and National Guard units – about 60,000 men in all. The total strength of the forces engaged on the Zaporozhye track and the Vremevsky ledge is at least 27 brigades, among them three tank, about 13 infantry, mechanized and reconnaissance battalions, as well as special forces of the GUR, SBU and SSO. They planned to attack according to NATO tactics with large armored units striking at narrow sections of the frontline. After breaking through the first line of defense, the infantry was to take up new positions and expand the bridgehead. To make up for their acute shortage of aviation, the Ukrainians planned to make massive use of long-range high-precision missiles and attack drones. They wanted to paralyze the actions of the Black Sea Fleet with attacks by unmanned kamikaze boats. All these plans fell through, though. The Russians had spent the past six months building impregnable, 25-30 kilometer deep, defense lines in Zaporozhye with fortifications ensuring perfect observation for miles ahead, erected along the dominant ridges and heights. Not to mention the forward defense area. To get to the first line of defense, one needs to break into the heavily mined advance fortified areas comprising dozens of platoon and company strongholds. Therefore, all Ukrainian attempts to break through have been futile and tragic. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, since the start of their counteroffensive, Ukraine has have already lost more than 43,000 troops and over 1,000 armored vehicles, including dozens of tanks. These are the heaviest single operation losses suffered by anyone anywhere since the Second World War.
It’s no magic, it is the art of war that the Russians certainly master. According to Western experts, Shoigu “completely changed the tactics of hostilities.” The self-confidence showed by the Ukrainians, buoyed by the huge military assistance from the West, which prompted their decision to counterattack was certainly not lost on the Russian Defense Minister. The British, French and US intelligence ignored the Russians’ combat coordination, strengthened positions and electronic warfare, carefully built up during the pause on the fronts. As a result, the “Bakhmut meat grinder” happened, where, by May 2023, the Russians had decimated up to 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The quickened pace of the Russian military-industrial complex, which had not been taken seriously by the Western and Ukrainian media, played a significant role. Realizing that the situation was not developing as planned, Zelensky ordered his generals to ramp up the offensive, which led to even greater losses and did not produce any results.
Western military experts note that each day of Ukrainian suicide offensives is undermining public confidence in Zelensky and the Ukrainian army, while simultaneously adding to the popularity of Defense Minister Shoigu and his military chief of staff Gerasimov. The laconic but active generals are turning the tables on the enemy, and the only way the Ukrainian President can respond to this is by using drones. In an attempt to sow panic in Russian society, more and more UAVs are launched towards the Russian capital only to enrage the Russians, who demand more strikes against Kyiv.
Russian generals have driven Ukraine and its Western partners into a difficult situation that is not so easy to get out of. The spring negotiations with Moscow that were broken off by Kyiv are unlikely to happen again. Just to say that the Ukrainian offensive has been halted won’t work as Western politicians themselves have acknowledged the problems faced by the Ukrainian armed forces. Recently, the Polish President Andrzej Duda openly admitted that Kyiv does not have enough weapons and ammunition to change the balance of forces at the front. In turn, White House National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said that the Ukrainians had received “everything they asked for a counteroffensive,” but added that they were not going as far as or as fast as they would like.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that Western society is losing interest in what is going in Ukraine. According to the latest CNN poll, 55 percent of Americans are against financial and military assistance to Ukraine, while Europeans are focused on their problems, which the Ukrainian crisis is only exacerbating.
In fact, more than two months into their counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army has not advanced, unable to reach even the first line of Russian defense. Zelensky has been forced to justify himself to the West, which, in turn, announces the preparation of another counteroffensive, but already next year. But will Kyiv and Washington have this time in the first place? Meanwhile, even with additional arms supplies, the battle-bled Ukrainian forces find themselves in a trap. Their future doesn’t look bright. At the end of August, Kyiv will have to declare that the goals of the offensive have been partially achieved, the Russian army has been weakened, and the Russian advance in the “threatened areas” has been checked. Truly? Hardly. Zelensky and his partners will be forced to look for solutions, but will they find any? In the meantime, Shoigu and Gerasimov will find themselves in a more advantageous position, with more room for maneuver, especially in the wake of the Ukrainian “counteroffensive,” where the Ukrainian armed forces are effectively destroying themselves. “Invincibility lies in oneself, the possibility of victory lies in the enemy.” These words by Sun Tzu haven’t lost their relevance today.
Artem Kureev
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